National Report by Priscilla Leith

Thank you Priscilla for keeping an eye on the Democrats chances in the US Senate and House in 2016. Click here for Senate data and here for House data. 

Summary as follows from Priscilla:

As of yesterday's primaries in WY and Alaska, here are current spreadsheets with the 2016 races.  The next round of primaries are August 30th in FL and AZ, with FL being the most important.  I will be on vacation down in NJ at the beach that week, so can't do the updates until Labor Day weekend.
    PROJECTIONS ON RACES BELOW.
    
US Senate Races
Dems take 3: IL (Duckworth vs. Kirk); NH (Hassan vs. Ayotte); and WI (Feingold vs. Johnson).
Toss Up 2: FL (Rubio vs. Murphy) & KY (Paul vs. Gray).
Losses: 0
Possible Wins, but not Toss Ups: MO (Blunt vs. Kander); NC (Burr vs. Ross)
   Dems will also Hold Nevada (Masto vs. Heck).
GAIN: 3 + maybe 2 + maybe another 2 = 3 to 7.   
    In my opinion, these races will depend largely on the funds candidates can raise in the last month, when large blocks of contributions can flow out of party and special interest funds.   Another factor is how closely Republican incumbents are tied to Donald Trump, and how voters in their states interpret that.  Who knows???   

US House Races
Dems Take 8: FL 10; MN 2; NJ 5: NY 19; NY 22; PA 8; VA 4; and VA 5.
Dems Lose 2: AZ 1 & FL 2.
Toss Up 3: IA 1; MI 7; NV 4.
GAIN: 6 + possible 3 = maybe 9 seats.  We would need 30 to take over the US House, so it is not a probability at this time.
    I don't think many of these races will be impacted by incumbent Republicans' ties to Donald Trump, unless he opponent strongly stresses that in messages the last month of the campaign.
    Stay tuned in the fall for how things proceed.  Until Labor Day not much will change, except in Primaries.