Prospects for the Dems in 2016 Elections

Former NDCC Chair Priscilla Leith offers her analysis of the Dems prospects in 2016 with this message to all who are interested:

At last I've taken a hard look at the recent reports I've done and sent to you.  To see the forest through the trees, I'm forecasting, at the present time, that the Democrats probably can take 3 US Senate seats.  The US House is not as clear right now, but will become so as the year moves on, with more financial reports coming in after 3/31/2016 and candidates dropping in and dropping out.  I don't think the House will change in any meaningful way. 
     I'm predicting that the Democrats will end up concentrating efforts, financial and volunteer appeals, in the 3 states where we have both a chance to capture a US Senate seat and some US House seats: Wisconsin, Nevada, and Florida.  


  • Democrats have a good chance of retaining 6 seats up for re-election: CA, CO, CT, MD, NV and WA.
  • Need $$’s for NV so Catherine Cortez-Masto can continue ahead of her opponent, Cong. Joe Heck (GOP).
  • Opportunities to capture 3 seats now held by Republicans: FL (Rubio); IL (Kirk); and, WI (Johnson).
  • Other Notes: Sen. Chuck Schumer has $12.3M as of 12/31/15 FEC report!!


  • 2 possible losses: AZ : CD1, where Ann Kirkpatrick is running for US Senate. FL: CD18, where Cng Patrick Murphy is running for US Senate
  • 5 possible gains: FL: CD13, where GOP Cong. David Jolly is running for US Senate; NV: CD3, where Cong Joe Heck is running for US Senate; NH: CD! Where Cong Frank Guinta is in trouble with the FEC for many violations; PA: CD16, where Cong Joe Pitts is retiring, and seat seems to be “in play” in recent elections; WI: CD8, where Cong Reed Ribble is retiring; MI: CD1, where Cong Dan Beneshek is not running; and, PA: CD8, where Cong Michael Fitzpatrick is retiring and Dem Shaughnessy Naughton has received EMILY’s List endorsement and zoomed up in her fundraising recently.
  • Other notes: OH (CD8) has 16 Republican candidates running for Fmr Speaker John Boehner’s seat in Cincinnati area, and only 1 Democrat.
  • PA (CD2) Cong. Chaka Fattah is in big trouble with the law regarding past use of campaign funds to pay for his son’s college tuition and other illegal items. He should resign, but as of 2/15/16 had not done so.